‘By-elections shaping2025 elections’
Analysts have said performance of political parties in the 18 by-elections held since November 10 2020, exposes their strength on the ground, as well as predict their likely performance and coalitions in the 2025 elections.
Statistics from the by-elections in 13 constituencies and five wards show that Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is the major winner—scooping eight parliamentary seats and a ward.
The Tonse Alliance lead partner now has 61 seats, from 55 in 2019; Independents occupy 56 seats; Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has 55, down from 62 while UTM Party has five legislators, up from four in 2019.
The UDF has 10 legislators, People’s Party (PP) has four and Alliance for Democracy (Aford) has two, having won Mzimba East on Tuesday.
In an interview, Mzuzu University-based political analyst Chrispin Mphande said PP and UTM were slowly losing touch, and such performance pits them on the sidelines during the 2025 elections.
He said the two parties needed to strengthen their grassroots, especially bearing in mind that Malawians vote along regional lines, with MCP and DPP dominating the Centre and South respectively.
Said Mphande: “MCP has managed to gain seats even outside the Central Region, but look at UTM, apart from the seat in Karonga, they haven’t done well, and worse still PP, they are not ticking, they are losing the ground.
“Things are showing that the only party with a known base is MCP, while these others still have a founder-syndrome. Likely, in 2025, DPP will have a block which is the South while MCP has the Centre, but UTM and PP do not, so they will either have to join DPP or MCP.”
Catholic University of Malawi head of political studies Chimwemwe Kandodo said the by-elections point to the electorate’s growing confidence and trust in MCP.
“This is a wake-up call for these parties to analyse themselves, their structures and operations; otherwise, they are heading for the worse. With 50-plus-one rule on the Presidency, this is also sending some signals on what could happen in 2025.
In the 13 parliamentary by-elections, independents won two seats, United Democratic Front (UDF), UTM and Aford, won one seat each, while PP has not won anything.
UTM Party spokesperson Frank Mwenifumbo argues that their party observation is that people love more material things than development issues when deciding who to vote for during campaign.
Out of the five parliamentary seats that MCP has won in the b-elections, four have been snatched from DPP, who has won one parliamentary seat and three wards.
MCP spokesperson Reverend Maurice Munthali boasts that they are succeeding because of President Lazarus Chakwera’s good leadership. He said the outcome of the by-elections is a vote of confidence in the party’s leadership.
As for the DPP, spokesperson Shadric Namalomba said it was expected of a party out of government to struggle in by-elections.
Said Namalomba: “The fact that we lost government means there were issues—some internal and others external.”
But analysts believe the DPP is losing ground, with University of Malawi political scientist Professor Blessings Chinsinga saying “since losing the June 23 2020 election, DPP has spent much energy towards maintaining squabbles than rebuilding”.
Of the 13 parliamentary by-elections, nine came about following the death of sitting MPs, while four originated from nullification of the elections by the courts.
In the June 23 2020 court-sanctioned presidential election, DPP partnered UDF and fielded Peter Mutharika as a torch bearer while the eventual winner Chakwera led the nine-party Tonse Alliance which comprises MCP, UTM Party, Umodzi Party, PP, Peoples Transformation Party, Peoples Progressive Movement, Aford, Mafunde and Freedom Party.
