Cows and their ‘May’ confidence
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ou can’t forget the long fuel lines a few years ago. It was normal to spend days waiting to refuel one’s car. And if you tend to think of folks in the transport business, the losses were huge, not good to sustain a business venture. The average commuter had to endure a couple of hours waiting for a ride to work that rarely came. I remember Ecama economists coming up with some quantifiable measures of productivity losses, including overall GDP. Their assessments were quite alarming but never far from the truth.
Malawi was a country that was on the verge of economic collapse. And short, as our memories tend to be, it was a sequence, if not a combination of events, not very much in line with a democratic country. Issues of intolerance to dissent were quite common and the rest is history as they say. Nevertheless, it remains true, most often, that bad governance was to a larger extent responsible for the near collapse of the country. In my own right, I contend that the economy had hit a recession.
Fast forward, and despite the unfortunate circumstances that led to change of government, with it, came a renewed sense of confidence. A shaky economic recovery plan was put in place that many of us struggled to lay hands. It may not matter much, but it just copied few aspects of the planning blue print, that is Malawi Growth and Development Strategy. The issue, at stake, and probably, that confronted any person that had endured the hardships of a near economic meltdown was confidence.
Confidence in any undertaking is quite critical to achieve any success. It is even true for a student sitting for some tough examination. With the new administration, saw pronouncements such as building a new coal fired power plant on the banks of the Shire. The few that have access to electricity sighed relief as they went without power most of the times.
Despite the massive devaluation that followed, and the consequent high inflation, that has now stabilised, I feel levels of confidence were still positive for both businesses and households. Diplomatic relations with the colonial head honcho normalised with new ambassadors appointed. The IMF too and other financing partners welcomed the new government, particularly in Lilongwe’s commitment to a free floating kwacha. The president even made announcements about it, possibly catching the main banker unawares. That’s what confidence does, to a country, and if managed with a serious pursuit of the general good of the public.
Did it change our fortunes? I doubt whether this is up for debate. Some positives appear in the wake of declining inflation. But does a low inflation reduce poverty? While there is a mathematical link that can be empirically tested, there is more to it.
The honcho of the treasury once went to town about the crasy month of May, when cows mow and chew in celebration as herders clap celebratory hands of a recovery. I may have missed that show on the television given power cuts. Maybe some people clapped hands and very soon there is another May a few days. Sometimes it is important to read the lips of the elderly to avoid getting wrong signals. It could have meant May 2017 and not May 2016. You see what I am saying?
In the punditry world, the consensus is usual mixed though the tyranny of common sense is often brutal. Some contend recovery is a long prices and, remains a very painful process. A certain quarter had maintained that recovery had not started. You can possibly agree with doubters of the recovery, comically coining it, the excitement of a new toy for any toddler. While dry pumps have not been an occurrence, the average Malawian is uncertain of the immediate future. The immediate future includes, the next semester for their kids, and indeed if any job is available for seekers that keep wandering the streets. But what are we supposed to recover from?
Was cash gate the last nail on the confidence coffin? Until and unless it is resolved without fear and favour we can kiss good bye to any potential progress. Such is the case because its contagion effects are disastrous in the sense that slowly everyone believes they can tap into public coffers and get away with it. This breeds a nation of thieves and a recipe for economic anarchy, that appears to be creeping in slowly.
Unless all culprits involved in the plunder of public resources are brought to justice, very few individuals or business will have confidence that is much needed to grow an economy. So as we celebrate labour day next, I look forward to how all of us will clap our hands to celebrate whatever it is. Its May after all, and like that old school poem, cows will mow, chew and lazy around have more fun. Savvy? Isn’t it? n
