Malawi elections ‘too close to call’—Afrobarometer Poll

Public opinion survey project AfroBarometer indicates the Malawi May 20 elections remains “too close to call.”

Afrobarometer in a dispatch realeased Friday said that it conducted a survey of public attitudes on democracy and governance in Malawi from 23 March to 7 April 2014. It said the nationally representative sample of 2 400 Malawians was selected to represent all adult citizens of voting age with a margin of sampling error of +/-2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

“The sample was drawn randomly based on probability proportionate to population size (PPPS), thus taking account of population distributions across regions, rural-urban location, and gender,” Afrobarometer said. The survey firm said face-to-face interviews were also conducted in the language of the respondents’ choice.

Among 12 people vying for Malawi’s highest office, four main candidates stand out.

They are President Joyce Banda, Atupele Muluzi of the United Democratic Front (UDF), Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and of the ruling People’s Party (PP)and Lazarus Chakwera of the opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP).

According to Afrobarometer, of the 2,400 people interviewed, DPP “appears to have a slight edge.”

The survey firm said when asked which party’s candidate they would vote for ‘if the presidential elections were held tomorrow’, of the 2,400 people 27 percent identified DPP and its presidential candidate, 74-year-old Peter Mutharika, 21 percent identified the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) led by 59-year-old Lazarus Chakwera, 19 percent identified the People’s Party (PP) of incumbent Joyce Banda, and 14 percent identified the United Democratic Front (UDF) under 35-year-old Atupele Muluzi; 15 percent said they did not know how they would vote or refused to reveal their preference fully.

The opinion survey report said the choices in the parliamentary election follow the same patterns: DPP is preferred by 23 percent, MCP and PP by 18 percent each, and UDF by 11 percent, with 18 percent undecided or refusing to reveal their choice; independent candidates are favoured by 8 percent.

It said 21 percent have not stated a preference in the local government elections, almost as many as prefer DPP (23 percent), and more than stated a preference for MCP (18 percent), PP (16 percent) or UDF (12 percent)

Afrobarometer said Malawians in the North “strongly favour” President Banda’s PP, those in the Central Region are” much more inclined to favour” the MCP and candidate Chakwera, while Southerners back Mutharika’s DPP and, “to a lesser extent”, Muluzi’s UDF.

The pollsters state that “nearly one in four Malawians do not predict a winner in the presidential race.”

The report said: “When asked who they think will ultimately win the 2014 presidential election, regardless of their own voting intentions, 24 percent don’t know or refuse to speculate, while 25 percent expect the DPP to win; 20 percent expect Banda and the PP to prevail, while 18 percent think the MCP has the upper hand, and 11 percent believe the UDF has the best chances.”

The Afrobarometer is an independent, nonpartisan research project that measures the social, political, and economic atmosphere in Africa.

Presently, Afrobarometer surveys are conducted in 35 African countries and are repeated on a regular cycle. Because the instrument asks a standard set of questions, countries can be systematically compared. Trends in public attitudes are tracked over time. Results are shared with decision makers, policy advocates, civic educators, journalists, researchers, donors and investors, as well as average Africans who wish to become more informed and active citizens.